WAR IN UKRAINE: THE GEO-STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

Abstract

President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine's 2013 stance against an association agreement with the European Union was the spark that ignited tensions between the Ukrainian people and Russian political pressure (Higgins, 2014). Protests against the government, culminating in the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, were spurred by the strong resolve of Ukrainian residents and political parties favouring a nationalist approach in opposition to Russian influence (Conant, 2014). The incident sparked open hostilities between Ukrainians with a heightened feeling of national pride and a counter-anti-revolution and pro-Russian movement in the border regions. A crucial flashpoint for the war was the peninsula of Crimea. Pro-Russian soldiers invaded Ukrainian territory, sparking an effective armed battle and shutting off all communication and transportation with the rest of the country (Bebler, 2015). Crimea became the battlefield as the conflict progressed, revealing a strong counterattack led by an underappreciated Ukrainian military. The earlier uprising against the pro-Russian leader stoked an already strong feeling of independence and identity, which explains the intensity of the response (Sherr, 2020). Referendum, heavily slanted towards the promotion of demonization of the Ukrainian authorities and the control of the voting process, formalised Russia's annexation of Crimea (Bebler, 2015). Donbass, a buffer zone between eastern and southern Ukraine, saw an escalation of fighting. The results of the 2010 Ukrainian election revealed a deeply divided nation, with a majority of supporters for Yanukovych clustered in the southeast, close to the Russian border (Conant, 2014). After Russia annexed Crimea, separatist groups arose across the Donbass areas. Violent riots, occupations of public institutions, and demands for segregation unfolded in Donetsk and Luhansk first, then spread to most of the neighbouring districts like a chain reaction (Mitrokhin, 2015). The conflict in Ukraine, which appeared at first glance to be a civil war between separatist rebel forces and the Ukrainian military, was supported by the Russian Federation and its forces in a "hybrid warfare" (Delcour & Wolczuk, 2015) to undermine Ukrainian legitimacy without running the risk of being accused and persecuted by international organisations. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the independence-seeking areas of Donbass have been engaged in a long process of peace-making since September 2014, when the first of several shaky ceasefires was established as part of the Minsk accord (Mitrokhin, 2015). While progress was made toward a peace deal at a summit in Paris, the military conflict was not ceased; instead, it entered a permanent state of "frozen conflict" (BBC, 2019). Despite the Minsk Agreements being negotiated in 2014/2015, which called for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, and constitutional reform recognising the special status of Donetsk and Luhansk, fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian government forces has continued in the Donbas for the last eight years.